000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W 4N100W 4N125W 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED. 
    
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER SW TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ANOTHER MORE DOMINANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST TO ITS W ENTERING
THE REGION THROUGH 32N120W AND EXTENDING SWD THROUGH 24N121W AND
SW TO 14N122W TO 4N124W. IT IS MOVING EWD 20 KT. THE COMBINATION 
OF BOTH SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH N OF 
13N E OF 131W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST SLICES NEWD FROM 15123W 
TO 19N114W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 24N107W...AND CONTINUING 
NEWD ACROSS SRN TEXAS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE 
SPEEDS OF 115-130 KT OVER NRN MEXICO. FURTHER W...MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING IS AMPLIFYING ALONG 137W AND N OF 17N IN RESPONSE 
TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WELL NW OF THE AREA. 

E OF 110W...
LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SWLY WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 100W-110W 
EXTENDING EWD OVER MEXICO INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE 
WINDS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MID AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...1021 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 29N130W WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 24N122.5W 17N108W. RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 4N TO 15N W OF 115W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 20 KT...A TAD STRONGER THAN GFS 
MODEL SUGGESTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WWD ARE SEEN FROM 15N-26N E OF 130W.
SIMILAR CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NWD ARE
VISIBLE N OF 17N W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TO 20 KT OVER THE PAPAGAYO IN ABOUT 36 HRS...AND FURTHER
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 48 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE