000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 4N100W 4N125W 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. 
    
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 22N115W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ON ITS HEELS 
EXTENDING FROM 28N125W TO 18N126W DIVING ESEWD 20 KT. 
COMBINATION OF BOTH SHORTWAVES ESSENTIALLY CARVING OUT A BROAD 
TROUGH N OF 15N E OF 130W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST SLICES 
ACROSS 17N120W SRN TIP OF BAJA INTO NW MEXICO AND SRN TEXAS. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 115-130 KT
OVER NRN MEXICO. FURTHER W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS 
AMPLIFYING ALONG 137W AND N OF 20N IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP 
TROUGH WELL NW OF THE AREA. 

E OF 110W...
LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SWLY WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W 
EXTENDING EWD OVER MEXICO INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. SWLY 
WINDS WERE ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO 
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.   

AT THE SURFACE...1021 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 29N131W WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD ALONG 26N122W TO 13N105W. RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 5N TO 15N W OF 120W. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 20 KT..A TAD STRONGER THAN 
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS. 

GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE PAPAGAYO WHERE NE 
WINDS ARE UP TO 20 KT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY...THEN PICK UP 
AGAIN TO 20 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND 20 TO 25 KT BY 48 HOURS.  

$$
COBB