000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1/79W 4N98W 4N121W 3N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 5N90W 3N96W AND 5N97W. 

OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 10N107W 11N109W AND 
ALONG A LINE FROM 8N120W TO 6N123W. 
    
...DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT ON THE MID LEVELS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER NRN BAJA AND NW MEXICO MOVING E 35 KT. SRN BRANCH OF 
THE WESTERLIES CONTINUES N OF 15N ACCELERATING EWD E OF 120W. 
MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ALONG 137W N OF 20N IN RESPONSE TO 
A SECOND DEEP TROUGH NW OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N131W AT 1023 MB PRODUCING NE 
TRADES 20 TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT FROM 5N TO 15N W OF 
120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 20 TO 25 KT..A LITTLE 
STRONGER THAN GFS MODEL HAS IT. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT 
EXCEPT FOR W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR WHERE SSMI AND 
QUIKSCAT SHOW 15 TO 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD TO 100W OVER NE 
MEXICO WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS S OVER SRN CA AND AZ. 
ADDITIONAL WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES ARE ALSO MOVING SSE BETWEEN 
120W AND130W JUST E OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH REMAINS 
ALONG 135W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE AND NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ALSO 
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT MODERATE ELY W OF NICARAGUA AND EL 
SALVADOR.

FOR DAY 2 THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CA/AZ DROPS S GATHERING IN 
THE WEAKER IMPULSES AND LOWERS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER SRN BAJA 
AND THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 120W N OF 12N. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE 
OVER THE W PORTION OF THE AREA DRIFTS E TO ALONG 133W AS THE 
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC PUSHES EWD. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOME WITH THE 
UPPER RIDGE OVER AHEAD..BUT THE GFS MODEL DOESN'T SHOW 
IT..MAINTAINING A 1022 MB CENTER. NE TRADES REMAIN ABOUT THE 
SAME WITH WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WEAKENING SOME TO 10 TO 15 
KT. NW PORTION WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT N OF 23N W OF 135W WITH 
9 TO 12 FT SW SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GAP WIND SITUATION 
WITH MOST AREAS LIGHT. W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR E WINDS TO 
20 KT SHOULD BE THE RULE. 

$$
RRG