000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  3N77W  4N90W  6N101W  6N111W  4N127N  4N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM FROM AXIS BETWEEN 95W TO 125W.
    
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S FROM 32N ALONG 114W TO S OF EQUATOR 
NOW SHIFTING NE AS BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG 95W HOLDS POSITION 
STUBBORNLY.  HEALTHY JET CORE 130 KT OVER S TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA ADVECTING LITTLE MOISTURE UNTO LAND...BUT MOST OF  
E PAC REMAINS FAIRLY DRY N OF 15N W OF 120W.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
SHOWS S OF 20N FROM 95W TO 110W AS AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE.  THIS ENHANCES ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 
104W-110W.

FARTHER W...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH N OF HAWAII HAS LARGE 
DIFFLUENT REGION JUST W OF 140W WITH LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS N OF 18N W OF 125W FEEDING MOISTURE TO ABOVE 
MENTIONED JET CORE.  STRONG JET STREAM...OVER 150 KT...WILL BE 
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO E PAC BASIN N OF 15N W OF 120W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA TO 
24N120W HAS AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SLIDES 
S ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.   

HIGH PRES 1022 MB AT 32N132W CURTAILS MOST DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION FROM 115-130W AND MAINTAINS BRISK TRADES W OF 110W.  
CARIBBEAN TRADES SPILLING OVER ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULFS 
OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD SUBSIDE WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS AS ATLC HIGH PRES 
RETREATS E FORCED BY STRONG COLD FRONT OFF ERN SEABOARD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES