000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  1N79W  5N87W  6N110W  4N130W  4N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.
    
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S FROM 32N ALONG 118W TO S OF EQUATOR 
NOW SHIFTING NE AS BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG 95W HOLDS POSITION 
STUBBORNLY.  HEALTHY JET CORE 110 KT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE UNTO LAND...BUT MOST OF E PAC REMAINS 
FAIRLY DRY N OF 15N.  EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE MOISTURE NOTED 
IN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE S OF 15N 
FROM 98W TO 120W.  THIS ENHANCES ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 104W-110W.

FARTHER W...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH N OF HAWAII HAS LARGE 
DIFFLUENT REGION JUST W OF 140W WITH LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS N OF 18N W OF 125W FEEDING MOISTURE TO ABOVE 
MENTIONED JET CORE.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA TO 
24N120W HAS AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SLIDES 
S ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.   

HIGH PRES 1023 MB AT CURTAILS MOST DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION 
FROM 115-130W AND MAINTAINS BRISK TRADES W OF 110W.  CARIBBEAN 
TRADES SPILLING OVER ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULFS OF 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA SHOULD SUBSIDE WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS AS ATLC 
HIGH PRES RETREATS E FORCED BY STRONG COLD FRONT OFF ERN 
SEABOARD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES