000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 6N87W 4N110W 6N140W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
97W-98.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
133W-135W.
    
...DISCUSSION...

SLIGHT REX BLOCK STILL IN PLACE OFF THE WRN U.S. COAST BUT THE 
UPPER HIGH OFF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND THE UPPER LOW W OF LOS 
ANGELES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY OFFSET FROM EACH OTHER. NLY 
FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL FINALLY DRIVE THE UPPER LOW 
SWD THEN EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW 
THROUGH THU. FAST-MOVING ZONAL FLOW LIES S OF THE UPPER LOW WITH 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET CENTERED ALONG 25N/26N...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION FROM A LARGE AND 
COMPLEX SYSTEM N OF HAWAII. WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 
1016 MB LOW DRIFTING SEWD IS ANALYZED NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA 
COAST AT 33N118W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SEWD ALONG NRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SSW THROUGH 28N116.5W 26N122W TO 27N129W. 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
MOVING TOWARDS THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST ARE NOTED WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

WITH THE UPPER FLOW HAVING BECOME MORE ZONAL WITHIN THE PAST 24 
HRS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND HENCE VIRTUALLY 
NO MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING OUT OF THE TROPICS AS HAS BEEN 
COMMON FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS LOCATED FROM 6N-18N W OF 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION W OF ABOUT 108W WITH 
ITCZ EXHIBITING VERY MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT MORE
THAN WAS HAS BEEN NOTICED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WSW ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 7N101W WITH THE BULK OF THE MID-LATITUDE 
FLOW RUNNING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER 
TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 100W/101W IS HELPING TO OFFSET SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 97W-98.5W. TSTMS EARLIER
SEEN ALONG THE JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST S OF 5N ARE 
QUICKLY DISSIPATING.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 20 KT...
...AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS. GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 20-25 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS
...THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT IN 48 HRS. N WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE
GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE