000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
21445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 7N92W 4N105W 6N118W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 92W-94W.   
    
...DISCUSSION...

THE REX BLOCK ALONG THE W COAST OF THE U.S. CONTINUES WITH A 
DEEP-LAYERED CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM WNW OF LOS 
ANGELES CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE/HIGH OFF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. 
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS 
ON THE S SIDE OF THE BLOCK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS FROM 
27N140W SEWD TO 24N123W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA AND NEWD INLAND 
NW MEXICO TO SRN TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE/HIGH 
CLOUDINESS EXTENDS SE OF A LINE FROM LA PAZ MEXICO TO 
CHIHUAHUA...RUNNING ACROSS MUCH OF N/CENTRAL MEXICO. A SURFACE
1019 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED W
OF SRN CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N124W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
THE LOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N118W AND SW TO 28N123W. BROKEN
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
AND WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN 
A MOMENTARILY INTERRUPTION IN THE NORMALLY STRONG RIDGE/TRADE 
WIND REGIME. THE OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST 
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...BUT THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK FREE AS 
AN ENORMOUS TROUGH N OF HAWAII ERODES THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 
ALASKA.

QUIET WEATHER IS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST FROM ACAPULCO SWD TO 
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN WWD ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA EXTENDING TO 8N110W
AND THE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FAR-REACHING E OF 
110W. TO THE W OF THIS RIDGE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXETNDS
OVER THE ERN PART OF THE REGION FROM CENTRAL BAJA SWD TO 18N114W
TO 13N116W TO WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 7N115W.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO LAST
ANOTHER 18 HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. 
CONVERSELY...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE 
PERSISTENT 20-25 KT TO OCCASIONAL 30 KT PAPAGAYO WINDS.

$$
AGUIRRE