000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG EQ/80W 5N100W 3N120W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ON COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 4N77W. OTHER ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 7N118W.   
    
...DISCUSSION...

A VERY INTERESTING MID LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE ERN PACIFIC 
TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUES 
BETWEEN 10N AND 30N WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ALONG 120W. THE 
INTERESTING FEATURE IS JUST N OF THE REGION ALONG 140W WHERE A 
STRONG SLY JET IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE/CUTOFF COMPLEX OFF 
THE W COAST AND A STRONG NRN JET DIGGING ESE OVER THE MID 
PACIFIC ALONG 30N W OF 150W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PATTERN 
IS NOT SO IMPRESSIVE AS ALOFT WITH A WEAK PACIFIC HIGH 1020 MB 
CENTERED NEAR 25N120W. A GALE CONDITION EXISTS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BUT QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT AS DOES THE 
SSMI PASS. NE TRADES ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 7N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 10 TO 
15 KT. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR NELY 20 TO 25 KT 
WHILE WINDS S OF PANAMA NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST AT 15 KT.

LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG 115W WHILE A 
CLOSED VORTEX OFF THE SRN CA COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC HIGH WHERE IT REMAINS 
STATIONARY OFF THE LOWER BAJA COAST. NE TRADES CONFINED TO 
BETWEEN 5N AND 14N W OF 105W AT 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS AREA 9 
TO 13 FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WITH NE SWELL TO 10 FT 
ALONG 10N W TO 110W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN NWLY AND 
LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 A PERSISTENT STRONG WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN 15N 
AND 30N WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SRN CA 
COAST. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAK PACIFIC HIGH 1021 MB WILL 
DRIFT W AND COVER THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. NE TRADES WILL BE 
CONFINED TO BETWEEN 5N AND 16N W OF 115W AT 20 TO 25 KT. SOME 
INCREASE IN SLY WINDS N OF 25N W OF 138W AS A LOW CENTER 
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W. BAJA WINDS REMAIN NWLY AT 10 KT 
WHILE GAP WINDS DECREASE SOME W OF NICARAGAUA/EL SALVADOR TO 15 
TO 20 KT.  WINDS S OF PANAMA REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AT 15 TO 20 
KT.

$$
RRG