000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  1N78W  6N89W  3N100W  7N125W  7N140W
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
    
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CUTOFF CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N OF AREA OFF CALIFORNIA 
COAST HAS LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG 124W TO 14N WITH THE HELP 
OF SE DIGGING JET CORE 125 KT.  THIS HAS PUSHED UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE TO ALONG 106W ALLOWING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
TO RIDE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND N 
HALF OF MEXICO.  SOME MOISTURE SPILLING OVER INTO SRN CALIFORNIA 
WHERE LOW PRES 1015 MB CENTER AT 34N123W AND ATTENDANT SURFACE 
TROUGH PROVIDE UPLIFTING MECHANISM FOR GOOD PRECIPITATION EVENT.

STATIONARY LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 24N141W HAS LOST UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW OVER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  LARGE SWELL 
PRODUCED BY LOW PRES HAS REACHED 5N W OF 120W EXPECTED TO REACH 
EQUATOR W OF 115W WITHIN 24 HRS. 

E PAC AREA W OF 130W BECOMING DRY AS NEW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES 
IN AND SIMILARLY E OF 102W UNDER WAS ONCE WAS AN UNMOVABLE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE...NOW EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN.  

AT THE SURFACE...GALE EVENT OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS REACHED 
UP TO 40 KT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE 
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.  

HIGH PRES 1018 MB OVER NW CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES 1008 MB OVER NW 
COLOMBIA CAUSE STRONG TRADES ACROSS SRN HALF OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
WITH STRONG WINDS SPILLING INTO E PAC ACROSS GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA.  

$$
WALLY BARNES