000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280408
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  23N78W  8N87W  5N100W  7N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CUTOFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 28N132W BRINGS NEW ENERGY 
TO AN OTHERWISE LACKLUSTER ENVIRONMENT.  JET CORE OF 130 KT 
ENTERS E PAC FROM 25N140W TO 19N136W SUPPORTS SURFACE COLD FRONT 
NOW ENTERING 138W.  MOISTURE AROUND DEEP VORTEX IS ABUNDANT BUT 
N WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHORT LASTING AS UPPER LOW 
IS BLOCKED FROM FURTHER INTRUSION SOUTH AND SHIFTS NE...COLD 
FRONT ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING DIFFUSE S OF 22N.   
LARGE SWELL TRAINS...UP TO 17 FT...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW 
SHOULD INTRUDE AS FAR SOUTH AS 6N W OF 115W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE UPPER LEVELS...FLAT RIDGE PUSHED S TO 14N 
DOMINATES AREA AS FAR E AS 97W WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS EXCEPT 
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN VICINITY OF CUTOFF VORTEX.  SECOND JET 
CORE WITH 130 KT CROSSES CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTING PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE INTO GULF OF MEXICO WHERE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE GOOD USE 
OF IT TO INTENSIFY.  

AT THE SURFACE...GULF OF MEXICO INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT  
MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS ON PACIFIC SIDE.  LOW MOVES 
EWD SO FAST EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS PERSISTENT 
CARIBBEAN TRADES MAKE IT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. 

NELY TRADES ON PACIFIC SIDE SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES 1019 MB 
IS DENTED BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.  RIDGE 
REBUILDS AFTER 48 HRS AND TRADES RETURN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES