000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  2N78W  8N88W  2N100W  8N135W  7N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CUTOFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 28N135W BRINGS NEW ENERGY 
TO AN OTHERWISE LACKLUSTER ENVIRONMENT.  JET CORE OF 120 KT 
ENTERS E PAC NEAR 19N140W SUPPORTS SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW 
ENTERING 140W.  MOISTURE AROUND DEEP VORTEX IS ABUNDANT BUT N 
WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT  SHOULD BE SHORT LASTING AS UPPER LOW IS 
BLOCKED FROM FURTHER INTRUSION SOUTH AND SHIFTS NE.  LARGE SWELL 
TRAINS...UP TO 17 FT...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW SHOULD INTRUDE 
AS FAR SOUTH AS 6N W OF 115W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE UPPER LEVELS...FLAT RIDGE S OF 17N DOMINATES 
AREA AS FAR E AS 100W WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH EXCEPTION OF 
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN VICINITY OF CUTOFF VORTEX.  SECOND JET 
CORE WITH 110 KT CROSSES CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTING PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE INTO GULF OF MEXICO WHERE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE GOOD USE 
OF IT TO INTENSIFY.  

AT THE SURFACE...GULF OF MEXICO INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT  
MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS ON PACIFIC SIDE.  LOW MOVES 
EWD SO FAST EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS PERSISTENT 
CARIBBEAN TRADES MAKE IT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. 

NELY TRADES ON PACIFIC SIDE SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES 1022 MB 
IS DENTED BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.  RIDGE 
REBUILDS AFTER 48 HRS AND TRADES RETURN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES