000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W 4N87W 6N110W 7N118W 5N125W 8N135W 7N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG 105W 
OVER NRN MEXICO MOVING E 25 KT. A CLOSED VORTEX WAS LOCATED N OF 
THE REGION OFF THE MID CA COAST WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS 
LOCATED ALONG 140W WITH A VORT CENTER NEAR 27N141W..ALL MOVING 
ESE 15 KT. A PERSISTENT SUBTROPIC JET CONTINUES FROM 11N140W TO 
15N120W THEN ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO. A SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES WAS DIGGING SE BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 140W. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED WITH ONLY A 1022 
MB CENTER NEAR 25N120W. NE TRADES ARE CONFINED TO BETWEEN 8N AND 
20N W OF 110W AT 20 TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI. A 
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST W OF THE REGION ALONG 142W N OF 
23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE 
PICTURES E OF THE FRONT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE NWLY 15 
KT. GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND W OF NICARAGUA AND EL 
SALVADOR WERE 20 TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT.

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES TO 
BEGIN TO PUSH THE WRN SHORTWAVE TO 135W WHILE THE ERN SHORTWAVE 
EXITS ALONG 100W. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE MID CA COAST 
WILL DRIFT S TO NEA 24N125W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE DRIFTS E TO 27N118W INSURING LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST. NE TRADES CHANGE LITTLE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW 
CORNER MOVES SLOWLY E TO ALONG 140W WITH NW SWELL TO 9 FT. GAP 
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND W OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR REMAIN 
ABOUT THE SAME 15 TO 20 KT AS DOES NLY WINDS S OF PANAMA.

FOR DAY 2 THE WRN SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 126W AND BEGINS TO INTERACT 
WITH THE CLOSED VORTEX OFF THE CA COAST. A FAIRLY STRONG WLY MID 
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE N OF 10N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE 
PACIFIC HIGH 1020 MB REMAINS STATIONARY OFF THE MID BAJA COAST 
WITH LIGHT WINDS N OF 20N E OF 140W. THE WRN COLD FRONT 
DISSIPATES TO A TROUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NW SWELL TO 9 FT. 
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC COULD INCREASE TO 25 KT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHER GAP WINDS 
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

$$
RRG