000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  6N77W  6N88W  4N98W  6N110W  5N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N109W TO 18N120W HAS FLATTENED 
CREST OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES E PAC BASIN 
S OF 18N W OF 100W KEEPING MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW OVER RIDGE AREA.
JET CORE 120 KT SE OF TROUGH AXIS ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE NE IN AN OTHER WISE VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT.  WATER 
VAPOR IMAGES SHOW MOISTURE CROSSING CENTRAL MEXICO INTO GULF OF 
MEXICO BUT LACK OF UPLIFTING MECHANISM MAINTAINS AREA DEVOID OF 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE 1020 MB 28N118W BLOCK ANY 
FURTHER SRN ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONT 32N124W TO 26N132W... 
WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND DIFFUSE SAT AS UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT FIZZLES.

SECOND HIGH PRES RIDGE 1020 MB BEHIND WEAK FRONT WILL BE FORCED 
OUT BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW 143W.  FRONT COULD EFFECTIVELY 
DECREASE BRISK TRADES CAUSED BY RIDGE...BUT INCREASE NW WINDS 
BEHIND IT AND INCREASE IN PRESENT 11 FT SWELL.

WEAK TOUGH IN SW GULF OF MEXICO WHICH HAS SUPPORTED GALE EVENT 
ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AND 
DISSIPATE.  WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD 
AS COLOMBIAN LOW PRES 1006 MB MAINTAINS ITSELF LATENT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES