000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 6N85W 4N98W 7N110W 6N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N84W.

...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CLOSED LOW 
IN SRN NEW MEXICO ACROSS BAJA PENINSULA LIFTING OUT AND MOVING NE. 
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS TAKING OVER W OF 125W. THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 9N140W TO NEAR 20N105W. AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM COLUMBIA TO 5N95W IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ALONG ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 90W.

AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF 
CALIFORNIA IS STALLED FROM 30N127W TO 25N133W. 1018 MB SFC HIGH PRES 
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N1122W. FRESH TRADES PRIMARILY BETWEEN 5N AND 15N 
W OF 120W. OVER THE WEEKEND THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADES TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIF.

QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BUT RATHER LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. 
GAP WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN 
MON IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEX.

$$
MUNDELL