000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N85W 3N99W 8N112W 3N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

ERODING REX BLOCK PATTERN BARELY IN PLACE WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER 
THE ROCKIES AND CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 
30N109W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS 
DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING...FLATTENING THE RIDGE 
OVER WESTERN STATES. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CLOSED LOW TO 
OPEN AND LIFT TO THE NE TODAY...AS ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER LOW 
REMAINS QUASI-STNRY OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE 
FURTHER W...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EWD AROUND 
152W. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW 
OFF CALIFORNIA IS STALLING AND WASHING OUT FROM 30N128W TO 
28N131W TO 26N140W. 1020 MB SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
27N1126W. EVENING QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS PATCH OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES GENERALLY BETWEEN 5N AND 15N W OF 120W. THE 
PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL TODAY AS THE CLOSED 
LOW OVER MEXICO LIFTS OUT...AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER 
TROUGH. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
SHIFTS E AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW 
TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY 
FLOW OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EVENING QUIKSCAT SHOWED 40 KT WINDS 
CONFIRMING THAT GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
BELOW GALE BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS AND SHIFTS 
E. HOWEVER...STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH SAT. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER SUN...BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN MON IN 
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND.

ELSEWHERE...DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE ALONG 3N E OF 
95W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS NOTED ABOVE.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN