000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 7N83W 4N95W 8N110W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 108W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED W OF CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
BEING PUSHED NE/SW FROM 30N135W TO 28N140W AS A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES FROM THE W. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE 
AREA W OF 125W AND WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS 
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THIS 
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY WASH OUT LATER THU/THU NIGHT.

FARTHER E...A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR EL PASO 
TEXAS AND IS CUT-OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES THAT ARE 
CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS. ANOTHER MID/UPPER 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALONG 122W...AND 
STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS N OF 10N E 
OF THE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING NE INTO 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

OVER THE FAR ERN PART...A MID/UPPER RIDGE LIES ALONG 80W OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE LYING E OF 100W. 
THERE IS SOME SLIGHT UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 85W-100W WHICH IS 
CAUSING MORE THAN USUAL CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ITCZ...WHICH IS 
ITSELF SUPPRESSED WELL S TO 2N/3N. THE GAP FLOWS ARE NOT STRONG 
AT THE MOMENT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THU MORNING.

$$
BERG