000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230415
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 6N106W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SONORA DESERT OF NW 
MEXICO NEAR 30N11W. ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE UPPER LOW SW TO NEAR 14N140W. S OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW SWLY JET WITH WINDS UP TO  
120 KT THROUGH SRN BAJA AND ACROSS NRN MEXICO. NRLY FLOW ON THE 
W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED 
THROUGH BAJA TOWARD CABO CORRIENTES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS SWD 
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...BRINGING FRESH NWLY WINDS TO SRN 
BAA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS PERSIST OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA. 
THIS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO STRONG ELY 
FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
GRADUALLY INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT 
PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS BY LATE WED.

FURTHER W...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LARGE FIELDS OF 
STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 13N 
AND W OF 120W. AT THE SURFACE...MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA S OF A 
1032 MB HIGH PRES CELL TO THE N. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN