000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221612
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N90W 6N105W 7N115W 5N127W
5N127W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH SWD FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SRN ARIZONA EXTENDING SW ACROSS NRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 27N118W 24N124W 18.5N130W TO 13N136.5W. 
CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR NW OF A 
LINE FROM SRN BAJA SW THROUGH 20N123W TO 16N130W TO 10N136W. 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING W OF THE REGION EXTENDS NEWD CLIPPING THE 
EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE IT BECOMES A MUCH NARROW 
RIDGE CREST REACHING TO THE NW UNITED STATES. ELY TRADES OF 
20-25 KT FROM 7N-125W W OF 125W WILL DIMINISH SOME TO 20 KT IN 
48 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR
35N133W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 32N127W TO 25N118W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 114W. A COLD FRONT 
MOVING SWD 15-20 KT IS NOTED BY AN 80 NM WIDE BAND OF BROKEN LOW 
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM NW MEXICO NEAR LOS MOCHIS SW THROUGH CABO SAN LAZARO AND 
CURVES NWWD TO 26N119W. THIS FRONT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES TO ITS N.

FARTHER E...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL HERE 
WITH MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AS SEEN ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SO CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ 
EXISTS ONLY AS ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY FROM 
S OF 8N AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 90W-98W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE SUBSIDENCE AREA IS MOVING 
WWD 15 KT AND IS NEAR 6N92.5W. NE TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 48 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE