000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 4N79W 6N95W 6N106W 7N117W 5N130W 4N140W. A SMALL AREA 
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 9N113W TO 5N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS MOVING SSE OVER NRN BAJA AND NW MEXICO. THE 
MID LEVEL GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING WHICH IS STRENGTHENING A 
SUBTROPIC JET THAT PERSISTS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 
10N135W ACROSS SRN BAJA AND NE MEXICO. AN OPEN MID LEVEL RIDGE 
CONTINUES OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE AT 1030 MB COVERS THE AREA N OF 5N W OF 105W. 
NE TRADES OF 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUE FROM 5N TO 25N W OF 120W 
ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT DATA. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
ARE NWLY 15 TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR 
ARE NE 15 TO 20 KT..NO DATA FROM SSIMI OR QUIKSCAT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES SLOWLY SE OVER NW MEXICO 
WHILE TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL BAJA SW 
TO 14N135W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR 33N131W. 
THE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 5N W OF 105W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST REMAIN NLY 15 TO 20 KT..AS DO WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS RELAX SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN MOVES E. 

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTAVE TROUGH TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NW 
MEXICO BUT KIND OF STUCK IN THE OVERALL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 
THE SW US SW TO 15N130W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW  CORNER 
OF THE AREA SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WEAKENS SOME WHILE DRIFTING E TO ALONG 125W. SLY WINDS INCREASE 
20 TO 25 KT OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 
135W WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. NE TRADES WILL REMAIN 20 TO 
25 KT BETWEEN 8N AND 22N W OF 110W.  ALONG THE BAJA COAST WINDS 
SHIFT TO NELY 15 TO 20 KT WITH GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS NLY 20 
KT.  GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE GRADIENT  OVER THE SW 
CARIB RELAXES.

$$
RRG