000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 3N78W 4N90W 5N100W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SWD EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO SWWD ACROSS 
BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO 22N132W. CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO 
THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR N OF 20N 
E OF 134W. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 12-20N W OF 129W 
FURTHER SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING W OF 130W. 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 35N125W TO 20N115W. HIGH PRES 
PREVAILS N OF 12N W OF 108W. A SURGE OF STRONG NLY WINDS N OF 30N 
BETWEEN 122-128W WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF HIGH SEAS W OF BAJA CALIF.
TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT 
VALUES UP TO 30 KT W OF 130W. QUIKSCAT SHOWS GAP WINDS TO 20 KT OVER 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL