000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 5N77W 5N105W 6N135W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 4N78W AND 3N79W. OTHER 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N116W AND 6N129W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE 
CARVING OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE REGION. 
ONE SHORTWAVE IS ALONG 30N113W TO 20N125W AND A WEAKER ONE ON 
IT'S HEELS OVER SRN CA EXTENDING SW TO 28N125W. THE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT FROM 25N140W 
NNE TO 35N133W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 
1033 MB WAS NEAR 36N134W AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 5N W OF 110W. 
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NE TRADES BETWEEN 5N AND 
25N W OF 120W WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. N OF 25N FROM 110W TO 122W NLY 
WINDS TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA 
ARE ENE 20 TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT DATA. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING N OF 18N E OF 
125W AS A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR HEADS SWD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
IS OVER LOWER BAJA WITH A STRONGER ONE OVER AZ/CA ON IT'S HEELS. 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
THUS TRADES REMAIN THE SAME. NO CHANGE TO WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST AND GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. WINDS S OF 
THE PANAMA AREA N TO NE AT 20 KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WASHES OUT AS THE STRONGER ONE 
OVER AZ/CA BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES TO NW MEXICO. A MID 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER SW ACROSS THE AREA TO 
10N136W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA FROM 20N145W TO 35N128W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 1028 MB REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 
33N130W WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRADES. SOME INCREASE IN WINDS 
N OF 25N E OF 120W AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IN THE NRN PORTION 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 25 KT 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. GAP WINDS BEGINS TO RELAX SOME AS 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVES E. 

$$
RRG