000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 2N78W 5N90W 4N100W 6N124W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS SHIFTING E OUT OF ARIZONA AS A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH PLUNGES SE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER 
THE PACIFIC WATERS EXTENDS NE TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR EL PASO 
TEXAS. WITH THE WHOLE SYSTEM SLIDING SLOWLY E...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
IS BUILDING ALONG 137W WITH A CONTINUING REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE 
HIGH PRES W OF CALIFORNIA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG. 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE 
ITCZ...THE FLOW ALOFT W OF 110W IS PRIMARILY ZONAL SO THERE ARE VERY 
LITTLE DYNAMICS PRESENT TO FOSTER CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE IS SOME 
DRIER AIR PRESENT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO THERE 
IS PROBABLY A SLIGHT CAP PROHIBITING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD RIDGE IS GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 110W. 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SWD...BUT THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW 20 
KT THIS EVENING AS A HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. GAP WINDS 
IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL