000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 4N77W 5N90W 5N120W 4N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 6N78W AND 2N80W..OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ON THE ITCZ.  

...DISCUSSION...

AS WAS FORECAST LAST NIGHT BY THE GFS MODEL..A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
IS DIVING SE ALONG 33N122W 29N130W AND KICKING THE CUTOFF LOW 
EWD. THE CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 30N112W 
MOVING E 15 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPIC JET IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES CONTINUES FROM 14N130W TO 27N110W WHERE IT 
ACCELERATES NE. A MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE TRADES 20 TO 30 KT BETWEEN 6N AND 
24N W OF 115W. A 1033 MB CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33N139W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE NWLY 15 TO 20 KT AND 20 TO 25 KT OVER 
THE EXTREME S PORTION N OF 20N E OF 112W. WINDS HAVE DROPPED 
BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 06Z. GAP WINDS W 
OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR REMAIN GUSTY NE 20 TO 25 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO 30N119W 22N130W WITH 
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING ENE ALONG 105W. THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD 
SLIGHTLY. ON THE SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
SLOWLY BUT GUSTY NE TRADES WILL REMAIN. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WHILE WINDS S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
REMAIN NLY AT 20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE TO GAP WINDS WHILE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS SHOULD BE 15 TO 20 KT.  

FOR DAY 2 WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING AWAY FROM 
THE AREA..A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS S ALONG THE CA/AZ BORDER AND 
PHASES IN WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER OUR REGION ALONG 115W. THE MID 
PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA DRIFTS E SLIGHTLY 
TO ALONG 22N140W TO 30N133W. A STRONG SUBTROPIC JET WILL 
CONTINUE ON THE S SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE FROM 15N125W TO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAKENING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL 
REMAIN ALONG 134W AND CONTINUE A NLY WIND OF 20 KT N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH NLY SWELL TO 12 FT. NE TRADES OF 20 
TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 8N AND 22N W OF 120W. GAP WINDS 
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS DO NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST. S OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
RRG