000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200353
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 6N120W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
JUST S OF THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 
20N133W. THE LOW IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL RIDGES AND NEARLY 
STATIONARY. A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N139W AND THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH 
AXIS IS HELPING PRODUCE STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW INTRUDING INTO 
THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS FLOW IS COMING IN OVER THE TOP OF 
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS MOVED ALONG THE WRN BORDER OF THE 
REGION N OF 18.5N AND W OF 134W.

A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM ABOUT 14N124.5 NE ACROSS 
SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF NRN MEXICO. WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT WITHIN 400 NM SE OF THE JET STREAM AND IS 
BEING ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO.

FARTHER E...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO SWD TO 
NEAR 8N101W...BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO 
PRODUCE ANY CLOUDINESS. BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS... 
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST IS SPREADING WWD FROM 2N-7N E OF 83W.

MARGINAL GALES EXPECTED A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE 
WINDS ARE GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. GULF OF 
PANAMA WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 KT AND SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 12-18 HRS.

$$
MUNDELL