000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 4N90W 6N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW IS POSITIONED OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
JUST S OF THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW 
TO 20N133W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER RIDGE REGIME AT 
THE MOMENT...CAUSING IT TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY. FRANKLY...THIS 
WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 
MONTH OR SO WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS AND RIDGING 
FARTHER E OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. A 1035 MB 
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N139W AND THE 
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO 
PRODUCE A STRONG TRADE WIND REGIME WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT. 
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS IN A BAND FROM THE 
DEEP TROPICS W OF 120W NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN BAJA PENINSULA AND 
NW MEXICO ALONG AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN 
LARGELY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL WEEKS.

FARTHER E...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK UPPER 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO 
SWD...BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO 
PRODUCE ANY CLOUDINESS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER 
TONIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE ALSO UP TO 30 KT BASED ON 
QUIKSCAT DATA...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD DECREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO. GULF OF PANAMA WINDS ARE BLOWING OUT OF THE N 
20-25 KT AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KT IN 36 HRS OR SO.

$$
BERG