000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 5N87W 5N110W 6N121W 5N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
5N78W..OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WAS LCOATED NEAR 
THE NW CORNER OF BAJA AND NEARLY STATIONARY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SW TO 14N140W. A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED 
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OVER SRN 
MEXICO AND EXTENDED EWD. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WERE 
JUST NW OF THE REGION THEN HEAD NE. THE SRN BRANCH CONTINUES 
QUITE STRONG FROM 12N130W NE TO CENTRAL BAJA AND NW MEXICO. ON 
THE SURFACE TONIGHT A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC HIGH 1035 MB WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 32N137W AND EXTENDED OVER THE AREA N OF 6N AND W OF 
110W. IT'S CIRCULATION WAS STRONGEST S OF 25N W OF 120W WITH NE 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. A GALE CONTINUED THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH QUIKSCAT SHOWING WINDS TO 40 KT 
WITHIN A SMALL AREA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR 
ANOTHER 18 HRS. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR 
CONTINUE GUSTY TO 25 KT AS DO A SMALL AREA S OF PANAMA. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST MOSTLY NW 15 KT ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT SHOWS THE 
SRN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.

LATER DAY 1 THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN EWD AND 
MOVE SLOWLY. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW SW TO 
15N135W. RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND 
OVER SRN MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A 1034 MB HIGH WILL 
MOVE TO NEAR 33N139W AND MAINTAIN STRONG GUSTY NE TRADES N OF 6N 
W OF 110W. A GALE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WITH NE 
SWELL TO 12 FT EXTENDING WELL SW OF THE GULF AREA. LITTLE CHANGE 
TO GAP WINDS OR WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST.

FOR DAY 2 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE OVER THE RIDGE THAT 
CONTINUES OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE WILL 
KICK OUT THE CUTOFF LOW AND SEND IT ENE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE PACIFIC HIGH TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY 
TO 1031 MB BUT REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
OVERALL WIND PATTERN WITH STRONGEST NE TRADES BETWEEN 8N AND 22N 
W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL BE NWLY 15 KT BUT 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER S AND SW OF THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. THE 
GALE IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WEAKENS. NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE W OF 
NICARAGUA AN EL SALVADOR BUT WINDS S OF PANAMA SHOULD DIMINISH.

$$
RRG