000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N90W 4N102W 4N110W 5N120W 
5N130W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN 
CALIFORNIA TO  NEAR 20N135W. A RIDGE IS N OF THE AREA IS WITH 
MOVING S BEHIND THE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY 
AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH S OF 23.5N. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS OF 70-100 KT ARE WITHIN JET STREAM CORE 
THAT IS VISIBLE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 18N124W 23N117W NEWD ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
ACROSS SW  UNITED STATES. MID AND UPPER LEVELTROPICAL MOISTURE 
WITHIN ABOUT 800 NM SE OF THE JET STREAM IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD 
TOWARDS MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MEXICO AND THE SSW UNITED 
STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCINGN STRONG 
TRADES W OF 120W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ALE CONDITIONS WITH N-NE WINDS OF 20-35 KT 
ARE FORECAST TO LAST ANOTHER 30 HRS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...20-30 KT OVER THE ARE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO 20-25 KT LATE FRI.

$$
TORRESE