000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N90W 4N102W 4N110W 5N120W 
5N130W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NW OF 
SAN DIEGO SW THROUGH 32N122W TO 25.5N127W TO 22N132W TO NEAR 
19N135W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE 
REGION WITH NLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE DROPPING SWD INTO THE 
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY 
AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH S OF 23.5N. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS OF 70-100 KT ARE WITHIN JET STREAM CORE 
THAT IS VISIBLE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 18N124W 23N117W NEWD ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND THE BETTER HALF OF THE SE 
UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEEP TROPICAL 
MOISTURE WITHIN ABOUT 800 NM SE OF THE JET STREAM IS BEING 
ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MEXICO AND THE 
SRN AND E UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED ANALYZED TO THE N OF 
THE REGION NEAR 36N134W CONTINUES TO CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG TRADES GENERALLY N OF 6N...AS NOTED 
BY RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND IN LAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT PASS. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING SW ARE NOTED FROM 18N-26N W OF 120W. THESE CLOUDS
ARE FOLLOWED BY A NLY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED...HOWEVER
GALE CONDITIONS WITH N-NE WINDS OF 20-35 KT STILL CONTINUE HERE 
AS SEEN IN THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 1200 UTC...AND ARE
FORECAST TO LAST ANOTHER 36 HRS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG ELY WINDS OVER CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH VALLEYS OVER NRN COSTA RICA AND SRN NICARAGUA. 
THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 25-30 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH FRI
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY OVER MOST 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS DUE TO MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THIS PART OF THE REGION. ANOTHER
RIDGE IS PRESSING NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SE OF GUATEMALA.
A VERY NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WWD ABOUT 18 KT 
PROTRUDES SWD DEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND GUATEMALA AS FAR S AS THE EQUATOR AND 97W. 

THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THE 
STRONG GAP WINDS FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO AREAS 
SPREADING WWD WITH TIME. GULF OF PANAMA N-NE WINDS HAVE ONCE 
AGAIN BEGUN (IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT) REACHING AS FAR S AS 4N 
BETWEEN 79W-82W...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HRS BUT OVER SMALLER SWATH AND AT 20 KT.

$$
AGUIRRE