000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 5N85W 4N90W 4N115W 6N123W 
5N132W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
TO 27N140W. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR 24N135W IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE 
TROUGH...AHEAD AND S OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NE 
PACIFIC. OTHERWISE MID LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ALONG THE TROUGH 
AXIS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW SWLY UPPER JET PACKING UP TO 
80 TO 100 KT WINDS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 9N140W THROUGH SOUTHERN 
BAJA. THE SWLY FLOW IS BRINGING COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS AND THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...1035 MB HIGH PRES IS 
CENTERED N OF AREA...PROMOTING STRONG TRADES GENERALLY N OF 
5N...AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND EVENING QUIKSCAT 
DATA. WIDESPREAD STRATO CUMULUS FIELDS ARE NOTED AS WELL ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY N OF 15N. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND 
EVENING QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW LINGERING FRESH NW TO N WINDS OVER 
MOUTH OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. THIS FLOW 
WILL DIMINISH TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY AGAIN THU AND 
FRI IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEXT SURGE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD AIR IS FUNNELING FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS. AT 06Z...A SHIP REPORTED 
45 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STORM WARNING IS IN 
EFFECT FOR THE AREA. RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY SETTING UP IN THE 
WRN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS NWD. 
HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DENSER AIR N OF THE 
ISTHMUS TO MODIFY AND/OR SHIFT NWD...THUS STORM CONDITIONS WILL 
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED...FOLLOWED BY GALE CONDITIONS 
THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG ELY WINDS OVER CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH VALLEYS OVER NRN COSTA RICA AND SRN NICARAGUA. 
OBSERVATIONS FROM MRLB...LIBERIA...IN NW COSTA RICA INDICATE 
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS PERSISTING. THIS INDICATES THAT 25 
TO 30 KT WINDS ARE PLAUSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODELS 
SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH FRI.

ELSEWHERE E OF 100W...MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY OVER MOST 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT PAC WATERS. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS 
ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH UPPER TROUGH S OF RIDGE 
AXIS OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM 
THAT THE STRONG GAP WINDS FROM TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO AREAS 
ARE CONVERGING AS FAR W AS 100W GENERALLY N OF 5N. THE 
COMBINATION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
TROUGH...AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF GAP WINDS WITH LIGHT 
SLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW...IS ALLOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALONG ITCZ NEAR 4N90W. EVENING QUIKSCAT SHOWS STRONG NELY FLOW 
OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN OVER N COAST OF PANAMA. HOWEVER...MUCH OF 
THIS IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO 
THE GULF OF PANAMA...WHERE ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS ARE 
NOTED ON QUIKSCAT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN