000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 4N90W 3N101W 4N110W 4N120W 
5N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 121W AND ALSO BETWEEN 129W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N118W TO 18N138W. A STRONG 
JET WITH SW WINDS OF 120 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 300NM SE OF THE 
TROUGH. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE 
SW U.S. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 1N120W 
BRINGING DRY AIR CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS W OF 110W AND S OF 20N.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N88W TO 
1N92W.S OF THE AXIS...STRONG 120 TO 130 KT SWLY FLOW IS 
EVIDENT...ADVECTING MID AND UPPER CLOUD DECKS ACROSS SOUTHERN 
BAJA AND NW MEXICO. THE TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED THROUGH TODAY 
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE W COAST AND INTO SRN 
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE 
REGION NEAR 39N140W CONTINUES TO KEEP A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE TRADE AREA W OF 120W...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N 
AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG NW-N 20-30 
KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO AS FAR S AS CABO 
CORRIENTES.

SURFACE...
GALE CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA BECOMING 
STORM CONDITIONS BY EARLY WED. RESIDUAL GALES WILL PERSIST INTO 
THU...THEN START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WEAKEN AND SHIFTS E. FURTHER S...NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 39N140W IS AIDING CONTINUES 
STRONG TRADES W OF 120W. STRONG NW-N 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
$$
FETORRES