000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161615
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 4N90W 3N101W 5N120W 7N130W 
6N140W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 130W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W-122W AND ALSO WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 79W-81W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EPAC 
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL 
DEFINED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 26N124W. S OF THE AXIS...STRONG 120 TO 130 KT 
SWLY FLOW IS EVIDENT...ADVECTING MID AND UPPER CLOUD DECKS 
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND NW MEXICO. THE TROUGH WILL BE 
REINFORCED THROUGH TODAY BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE 
W COAST AND INTO SRN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...
A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 39N140W CONTINUES TO KEEP
A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE TRADE AREA W OF 
120W...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND TROUGHING OVER NRN 
MEXICO IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG NW-N 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO AS FAR S AS CABO CORRIENTES.

E OF 100W...
A COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS PRESSING SWD
OVER TEXAS HAS PUSHED A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE COLD DENSE 
AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW FOR GALE CONDITIONS TO SET 
UP IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING IN ABOUT 6 HRS WITH STORM 
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN 18 HRS AS THE BULK OF THE COLD 
DENSE AIR FUNNELS THROUGH THE GAP. RESIDUAL GALES WILL PERSIST 
INTO THU...THEN START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WEAKEN AND SHIFTS E. FURTHER S...NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA DUE TO STRONG TRADES 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS. AN UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
THE EPAC WITH ITS ASSOCIATED VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
KEEPING THIS PART OF THE REGION MOSTLY CLOUD FREE.

$$
AGUIRRE