000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151614
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS AXIS 3N78W 5N90W 3N103W 5N125W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 129W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE 
A STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
GREAT BASIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 27N135W. SEVERAL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THIS TROUGH. S OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATED A STRONG 110-130 KT SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING ACROSS 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS 
STRONG JET WAS ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE 
NEWD AND FUELING A MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER TEXAS AND THE 
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NW MEXICO HAS 
WASHED OUT OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...DUE TO LACK OF UPPER 
SUPPORT DUE TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. NONETHELESS FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS PERSIST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AS SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND 
EVENING QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 30 KT NW TO N WINDS OVER SEA
OF CORTEZ AND THE AREA S OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND W OF CABO 
CORRIENTES. FURTHER W...1034 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
37N132W. NWP MODEL DATA AND SPARSE SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE 
TO INDICATE 25 TO 30 KT TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THIS RIDGE. THIS 
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE PACIFIC E OF 110W 
WITH AXIS ALONG 100/102W. RIDGING EXTENDS EWD OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND IS MAINTAINING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
PACIFIC WATERS...AND AT THE SURFACE IS PROMOTING STRONG GAP WIND 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE 1134 UTC QUIKSCAT 
PASS INDICATED WINDS UP TO 30 KT. 
 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT. HOWEVER 
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHIVELAS GAP WINDS WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITHIN 24 HOURS. NWP MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND NAM 
ARE INDICATING STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY 48 
HOURS...THUS STROM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ARCTIC 
NATURE OF THE COLD AIR MASS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SWD. THIS WOULD BE 
THE NINTH STORM FORCE EVENT OF THE 2006-2007 WINTER SEASON IF
THIS MATERIALIZES. 

$$
COBB