000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 4N77W 5N87W 3N99W 5N122W 
5N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W 
AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SHARPLY 
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 27N140W. S OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS...STRONG 80 TO 90 KT SW UPPER JET WINDS ARE EVIDENT OVER 
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA AND NW MEXICO. 
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NW 
MEXICO IS WASHING OUT OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...DUE TO LACK OF 
UPPER SUPPORT DUE TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. NONETHELESS FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS PERSIST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AS SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
AND EVENING QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NW TO N WINDS OVER 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE AREA S OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND W OF 
CABO CORRIENTES.

STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING DEEP LAYER DRY 
AIR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND PACIFIC WATERS E OF 110W...AND 
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW PERSISTS OVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 24 HOUR IN RESPONSE 
TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME 
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME CONCERNING HOW STRONG THIS EVENT WILL 
BE DURING THE UPCOMING 24 TO 48 HOURS. GFS AND NAM HINT OF NEAR 
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER 
TEXAS SLOWLY PUSHING S. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR IS THAT 
UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING...AND MAY STIFLE A FAST PUSH INTO THE 
GAP. NONETHELESS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL A GOOD BET GIVEN 
THE DENSE AIR MOVING SOUTH.

FURTHER W AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
36N133W. EVENING QUIKSCAT PASSES AND LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
SHOW 25 TO 30 KT TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL 
WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN