000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 3N96W 6N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

NW MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING E FROM THE GUADELOUPE MOUNTAINS OF W 
TEXAS...SNAGGED ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS...THEN 
DRAPED SW TO LOS MOCHIS TO CABO SAN LUCAS. CLOUDINESS E OF THE 
FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY E WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...AND MUCH 
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ACROSS NW MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. 
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND NW MEXICO...AND ARE AS LOW AS THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS 
NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

PACIFIC W OF 110W...
SLOW-MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS STILL PARKED OVER THE WRN 
U.S. AND HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS A 
SHORTWAVE DROPS S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A NEARLY CUT-OFF 
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS DETACHED FROM THIS MAIN TROUGH FROM 30N125W 
TO 23N140W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET UNDERCUTTING THIS FEATURE 
TOWARDS S/CENTRAL BAJA. WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
LIES E OF 133W AND SE OF THE TROUGH...PARTLY DUE TO BROAD UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-120W IS IN A DISSIPATING 
PHASE...YET STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES AS WELL 
AS FAVORABLE POSITIONING SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE 
AND COULD INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.

PACIFIC E OF 110W...
BLOCKING HIGH IS STILL CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LYING E OF 100W ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA. STRONG GAP FLOW HAS ALSO CLEANSED THE ATMOSPHERE AND 
PUSHED THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/ITCZ S OF 4N. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO BE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN BRISK OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT DAY BUT WILL THEN INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE LIKELY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THESE WINDS COULD BE 
MARGINAL STORM FORCE SOMETIME WED.

$$
BERG