000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 3N97W 4N110W 7N124W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

NW MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING E FROM THE GUADELOUPE MOUNTAINS OF W 
TEXAS...SNAGGED ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS...THEN 
DRAPED SW TO LOS MOCHIS TO LA PAZ. CLOUDINESS E OF THE FRONT IS 
MOVING QUICKLY E WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...AND MUCH DRIER AIR 
IS FILTERING IN ACROSS NW MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS 
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ARE 
AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

PACIFIC W OF 110W...
SLOW-MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS STILL PARKED OVER THE WRN 
U.S. WITH AXIS STRETCHING FROM ERN MONTANA SW TO 25N114W NEAR 
THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. A NEARLY CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS 
DETACHED FROM THE MAIN TROUGH NEAR 22N136W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET UNDERCUTTING THIS FEATURE FROM 20N140W TO 26N112W IN CENTRAL 
BAJA. WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIES E OF 130W AND 
SE OF THE TROUGH...PARTLY DUE TO BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS 
THE TROPICAL WATERS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS 
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-122W DUE TO STRONG 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES AS WELL AS FAVORABLE 
POSITIONING SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

PACIFIC E OF 110W...
BLOCKING HIGH IS STILL CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LYING E OF 100W ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA. STRONG GAP FLOW HAS ALSO CLEANSED THE ATMOSPHERE AND 
PUSHED THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/ITCZ S OF 4N. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO BE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN BRISK OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT DAY BUT WILL THEN INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE LATE TUE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
BERG