000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 3N78W 5N100W 4N105W 6N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG MID TO UPPER VORT MAX IS DROPPING SWD ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS AIDING IN OVERALL DEEPENING OF MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS/FOUR CORNERS 
REGION SWWD THROUGH 26N120W THEN WWD TO A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N138W. SUBTROPICAL JET FROM 16N140W 
TO CENTRAL BAJA PHASES WITH THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N135W 
CONTINUES TO PUMP COOLER AIR SWD INTO THE AREA WITH A BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD W OF BAJA. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 
NW MEXICO SW TO CENTRAL BAJA TO NEAR 24N117W.

BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NEAR 100W NWD ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS STILL 
PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR SKIES E OF 100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE 
W ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STEADY TRADES OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN...AND THIS IN TURN HAS KEPT THE GAP WINDS GOING NEAR 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A 1200 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 
KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TUE EVENING 
AS A COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
COBB