000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 3N78W 3N105W 6N117W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
6N TO 8N BETWEEN 113W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CALIF COAST HAS DEEPENED SLIGHTLY AND WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD WEST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SW TO 
26N118W THEN W TO 22N138W. SUBTROPICAL JET FROM 16N140W TO CENTRAL 
BAJA PHASES WITH THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. 
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES 
TO PUMP COOLER AIR SWD INTO THE AREA WITH A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
FIELD W OF BAJA. A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW MEXICO SW TO 
CENTRAL BAJA.

BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NEAR 100W NWD ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO...AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS STILL PRODUCING MAINLY 
FAIR SKIES E OF 100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE STEADY TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND THIS IN TURN HAS KEPT 
THE GAP FLOWS CRANKING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TUE 
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
MUNDELL