000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 3N95W 6N115W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 120W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED OVER THE WRN U.S. HAS MOVED E 
ONLY A COUPLE OF HUNDRED NM SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N. 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES FROM 20N140W NEWD TOWARDS CENTRAL BAJA 
WHERE IT PHASES WITH THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NEAR THE W SIDE OF THE BASE OF 
THE LARGER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N120W TO 26N140W AND IS 
INCREASING THE SUBSIDENCE TO THE N OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A 
1033 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND 
CONTINUES TO PUMP COOLER AIR SWD INTO THE AREA WITH A BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD W OF BAJA. THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WHICH 
FIRST USHERED IN THIS AIR MASS IS NOW OVER THE DESERT SW...WITH 
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE WRN NEW MEXICO SW TO CENTRAL 
BAJA. TEMPERATURES SE OF THE FRONT WERE UP TO NEAR 70F IN CITIES 
LIKE GUAYMAS...BUT HAVE BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID-50S OVER 
EXTREME NW MEXICO.

OPPOSITE STORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FARTHER E NEAR CENTRAL 
AMERICA. EXTENSIVE RIDGE SYSTEM HAS SET UP FROM THE FAR E 
PACIFIC WATERS NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS STILL PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR SKIES 
E OF 100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
STEADY TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND THIS IN TURN HAS KEPT THE 
GAP FLOWS CRANKING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AGAIN 
TUE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
BERG