000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131618
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 5N90W 4N100W 5N120W 6N130W 5N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 95W...
THE FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR N OF 20N 
WHERE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA. THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N121W AND EXTENDS SW 
THROUGH 28N128W TO 27N135W TO W OF 140W INTO A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 26N144W. A JET STREAM BRANCH 
ROUNDS THE BASE OF TROUGH WITH MAXIMUM OF WINDS 70-105 KT NEAR 
THE CORE WHICH IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE JET STREAM W OF 
130W. THIS JET STREAM CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ PORTION LOCATED S OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EVIDENT S OF 10N WITH
A WEAK MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
2N117W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS PUNCHING 
INTO THE AREA FROM 24N-32N E OF 130W. AN AREA OF STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS PUNCHING INTO THE REGION IN NW FLOW 
BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM 19N-26N W OF 133W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N110W SW ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
27N117W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THIS FRONT AS SEEN 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS 
PRESSING SWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE REGION.

EAST OF 95W...
A  SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
ALONG 95W. TO ITS E...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  HAS SHARPENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS PART OF THE REGION
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED HERE. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE 
TO STRONG GAP WINDS FROM PANAMA TO TEHUANTEPEC. MAX WINDS OVER 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE IN THE 25-30 KT AND 20 KT IN THE GULF
PANAMA AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND INCREASE SOME OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA
AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DIMINISHING IN 48 HRS. EXPECT
LINGERING SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO SPREAD WWD WITH 
TIME TO NEAR THE TRADE WIND AREA.

$$
AGUIRRE