000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 4N78W 4N100W 6N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N112W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDED WELL S INTO THE TROPICS OVER THE 
PAST 3 DAYS HAS KICKED OUT TO THE NE AND AS A RESULT MORE ZONAL FLOW 
HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A MID LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING SE 
INTO SRN CALIF AND AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING 
SLOWLY S ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. FARTHER S...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-120W DUE TO 
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

IN THE E PART OF THE AREA A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
EXTENDS SW TO AROUND 10N110W. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OVER THE PAST 
FEW DAYS WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES IN 
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS. GAP FLOWS REMAIN IN THE 
20-25 KT RANGE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
MAINLY OVER TEHUANTEPEC AND PANAMA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL