000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 3N83W 4N96W 7N130W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W-115W...AND BETWEEN 120W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFIED FLOW DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC 
WATERS TODAY WITH SLIGHT INFLUENCES REACHING INTO THE DEEP 
TROPICS. A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS OVER THE W PART OF THE 
AREA WITH A CENTER OVER NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER AND AXIS 
EXTENDING S ALONG 117W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET...WITH WIND SPEEDS 
TO 110 KT...IS ALIGNED ALONG 22N WITH A STREAM OF HIGH 
CLOUDINESS TURNING NE TOWARDS SRN BAJA AND NRN MEXICO. AN OLD 
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STILL EXTENDS FROM SRN BAJA SW TO 18N120W 
AND IS FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD N OF 20N...AND 
ALSO MAY BE CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID/HIGH 
CLOUDINESS DECK STREAMING TOWARDS BAJA. FARTHER S...CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 110W-129W DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS 
SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT AIR ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA...AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
STRETCHING SW TO 10N110W. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OVER THE 
PAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLEAR 
SKIES IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS. THE GAP 
FLOWS REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MAINLY OVER TEHUANTEPEC AND PANAMA IN THE 
COMING DAYS.

$$
BERG