000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121618
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 3N78W 4N90W 4N100W 5N110W 5N120W 6N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
113W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 110W N OF 15N...
THE FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR N OF 20N 
WHERE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS PRESENT. A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 28N125.5W TO BEYOND THE 
REGION AT 22N140W. A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 30N142W. A JET 
STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF TROUGH WITH MAXIMUM OF WINDS 
70-95 KT NEAR THE CORE WHICH IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE JET 
STREAM W OF 130W. THE JET STREAM IS USHERING IN PLENTIFUL DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ PORTION LOCATED S OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS PUNCHING 
INTO THE AREA FROM 15N-27N W OF 138W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
EXETNDS FROM SW ARIZONA SW TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. 850 MB 
THETA THETA-E ADVECTION INDICATES DRIER AIR ADVECTING SWD INTO 
THE NE PART OF THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH.

WEST OF 110W S OF 15N...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 137.5W WITH ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERING THIS AREA.

EAST OF 110W...
A  SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 99W. DIFFLUENT FLOW
PATTERN NOTED TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO NRN MEXICO. FARTHER E MID-LEVEL 
RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MID-LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 100W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED HERE. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG 
GAP WINDS FROM PANAMA TO TEHUANTEPEC. MAX WINDS OVER THE GULFS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE IN THE 20-30 KT AND 20-25 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS OVER THE GULF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF 
PANAMA WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE WINDS OVER 
THE GULF PAPAGAYO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LASTING FOR SOME TIME.

$$
AGUIRRE