000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 4N78W 5N90W 4N105W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 136W WITH A 90 KT CORE 
SUBTROPICAL JET FROM 26N140W SE TO 13N120W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ S OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS IS STREAMING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ROUNDING THE APEX 
OF THE RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CANOPY LIES MAINLY N OF 10N. THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET DIVES SE INTO THE BASE OF AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH 
STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW STATES TO 30N118W THEN SE WELL INTO 
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR EQ102W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 
TIJUANA MEXICO SW TO 30N127W. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS QUITE SHARP S 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE RESULTANT UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS CAUSING 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO STREAM INTO NRN MEXICO. THERE IS ENOUGH 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THIS MOISTURE PLUME TO PRODUCE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST.

FARTHER E MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 
A RIDGE AXIS SWWD TO 8N105W...SUPPORTING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
E OF 100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG GAP WINDS FROM PANAMA TO 
TEHUANTEPEC. MAX WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO 
ARE TO 30 KT AND TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL 
SUBSIDE GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL