000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N79W 6N86W 3N105W 6N120W 6N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 2N81W...JUST 
OFFSHORE THE ECUADOR/COLOMBIA BORDER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-125W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH A 90 KT 
JET STREAK WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET RUNNING FROM 26N140W SE TO 
15N120W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS STREAMING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE RIDGE...AND THE 
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CANOPY LIES MAINLY N OF 15N. THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET DIVES SE INTO THE BASE OF AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH 
STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW STATES TO 30N120W THEN SE WELL 
INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N110W. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO 
THE N PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA SW 
TO 28N130W 30N137W WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS DIVING IN FROM 
THE N. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS QUITE SHARP S OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND THE RESULTANT UPPER DIFFLUENCE/LIFT IS CAUSING 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO STREAM NE INTO THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF MEXICO ROUGHLY BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND THE SRN PAR OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES NE INTO THE 
S/CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE US. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
BENEATH THIS MOISTURE PLUME TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE 
SRN BAJA COAST...WHICH ARE THEN MOVING NE FROM CIUDAD 
CONSTITUCION SWD ON THE BAJA PENINSULA AS WELL AS BETWEEN 
MAZATLAN AND CIUDAD OBREGON ON THE MAINLAND.

FARTHER E...RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE WATERS EXTENDING S TO THE EQUATOR. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER 
IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS WWD TO 
13N110W...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
OCCURRING E OF 100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS FROM 
PANAMA TO TEHUANTEPEC ALTHOUGH THE GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC HAS JUST BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MAXIMUM WINDS OVER 
THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE TO 30 KT AND ARE TO 25 
KT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER 
THE GULF OF PANAMA IN THE COMING DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN 
HIGHER OVER THE OTHER TWO GULFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
BERG