000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 2N80W 5N90W 3N105W 6N130W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 140W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
STREAMING ACROSS THE RIDGE ALONG A 95-105 KT JET STREAM FROM 
28N140W TO 17N120W. LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE 
UNITED STATES WITH AXIS FROM NEAR LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA TO 
13N113W.  A SUBTROPICAL JET E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SW WINDS 
OF 95-110 KT FROM 21N113W ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO NW 
MEXICO THEN INTO NEW MEXICO. SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS 
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N119W TO 29N127W THEN NW TO 
32N138W.

LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS IN PLACE FARTHER E WITH WITH AXIS FORM 
11N93W ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
CONTINUING N THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS 
PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 20N E OF 100W 
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR SKIES.

THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO LOOSENED SOME AS 
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER IT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH 
TO PRODUCE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS 
DECREASING TO BELOW GALE FORCE.

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 24N119W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 15N 
W OF 122W.

$$
DGS