000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N78W 8N85W 3N105W 7N130W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITH A 
CUT-OFF TROUGH S OF THE STRONGEST FLOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET W OF THE TROUGH 
IS ABOUT 110 KT AND THE JET IS DIVING S LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION OF 
THE TROUGH INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED N OF 15N E OF 123W STREAMING N INTO NRN 
MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED 
AT THE MOMENT WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR LOS ANGELES 
CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 26N124W. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
JUST N OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF 30N THU MORNING THEN 
SPREAD SE OVER THE WATERS NEAR BAJA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS IN PLACE FARTHER E WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
ROUGHLY NEAR 9N97W. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE E OF 100W RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. HOWEVER THE 
GAP FLOWS ARE FAIRLY STRONG AT THE MOMENT AND THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS 
ARE MODERATE/STRONG OUT OF THE NE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE 
DROPPED REMAIN AT GALE FORCE (30-45 KT) BASED ON AN 0034 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FALL BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 12 HRS.
WINDS ARE ALSO CLOSE TO 30 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TO 25 KT 
OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS/HIGH PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

$$
MUNDELL