000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N80W 5N90W 3N103W 7N120W 6N130W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 112W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST ONSHORE THE W COAST OF THE UNITED 
STATES WITH A CUT-OFF TROUGH S OF THE STRONGEST FLOW MOVING 
CLOSER TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE W OF THE TROUGH IS ABOUT 110 KT...AND THE 
JET IS DIVING S LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE 
DEEP TROPICS. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED N OF 25N E OF 123W AND IN A BAND BETWEEN 
107W-120W STREAMING N INTO NW MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH... 
THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED AT THE MOMENT WITH A 1012 
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA AND 
A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 26N126W. A COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE 
AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF 30N LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW 
MORNING...THEN SPREAD SE OVER THE WATERS NEAR BAJA DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FARTHER E...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER HIGH 
CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 9N97W. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS PRODUCING 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 100W RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR 
SKIES. HOWEVER...THE GAP FLOWS ARE FAIRLY STRONG AT THE MOMENT 
AND THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MODERATE/STRONG OUT OF THE NE. GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE DROPPED JUST BELOW STORM FORCE (45 KT) 
BASED ON AN 0034 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY 
FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON (WITHIN 18 HRS). WINDS 
ARE ALSO 30 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TO 25 KT OVER THE 
GULF OF PANAMA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS/HIGH PRES OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
BERG