000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N78W 3N86W 5N105W 9N118W 5N132W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 9N117W.

...DISCUSSION...
PRONOUNCED HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE 
TROPICS FROM 30N135W TO 15N127W. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
10N105W TO 32N125W. GOOD MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER CLOUDS JUST EAST 
OF THE 120W MERIDIAN AND A SMALLER AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FLARING UP NEAR 9N117W. 

AT THE SURFACE THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NEAR 
ITS PEAK AT THIS TIME AS A STRONG 1031 MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EAST 
COAST OF MEXICO. A QUIKSCAT PASS TUESDAY EVENING REVEALED A SIZABLE 
AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM TEHUANTEPEC WITH A FEW 
50 KT VALUES SPRINKLED IN. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...IT SEEMS THE 
DOWNGRADE FROM A STORM WARNING TO GALE YESTERDAY WAS A GOOD CALL. 
WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 50 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR 
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH 25-35 KT GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL 
THURSDAY MORNING. THE QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BUT 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE. ELSEWHERE A FAIRLY BENIGN 
TRADE WIND PATTERN EXISTS WEST OF 105W WITH TRADES IN THE 10-20 KT 
RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT LACKING A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND 
THE FRONT NO MAJOR INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS NEAR BAJA IS LIKELY.

$$
MUNDELL