000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 9 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N78W 4N90W 5N100W 8N112W 5N127W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RETROGRADE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG 135W 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE COMBINED RETROGRADE ACTION AND DEEPENING IS 
AMPLIFYING THE DOWNSTREAM N-S RIDGE AXIS ALONG 115W. THE RESULTING 
MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE 
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 100W AND 130W IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN 
PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CREATING GALE CONDITIONS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE 
AND APPROACH 50 KT IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT. STORM FORCE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST 12 HOURS OR LESS...BUT 
GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AS A RESULT LOCALLY 
GENERATED SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE FAR AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION... 
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO AROUND 110W. THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO SEE ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE NEXT 36-72 
HOURS. TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE BASIN AND SEAS ARE 
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE W OF 115W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S ALONG 
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL