000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 4N90W 6N105W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 103W 
TO 106W AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION....
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N129W TO CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 19N134W TO 14N137W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS NW OF LINE 21N131W 32N110W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED NWD WITHIN 500 NM SE OF TROUGH FROM 10N-21N.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA THROUGH THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 10N98W WITH 
RIDGE N TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW W 
OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 103W-106W...OTHERWISE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ E OF 98W.

STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 13N W OF 120W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS W OF A LINE 30N127W TO 15N120W.

CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND N OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 97W.

NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE 
TO 20-30 IN ABOUT 48 HRS PER GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELD.

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

STRONG HIGH BUILDING S OVER TEXAS AND INTO NRN MEXICO IN ABOUT 
36-48 HRS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURGE OF N WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH CURRENTLY A MINIMAL GALE EVENT BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM STRENGTH (40-50 KT) IN 24 HRS.

$$
DGS